The Countdown to AFA's 300th Win

As he enters his twenty-first season as AFA's head coach, Fisher DeBerry's record through 245 games stands at 156-88-1(.638) overall; 73-57-1(.561) on the road or at neutral sites and 83-31(.728) in home games. A greater number of these games have been played on the road or at neutral sites--131 or 53.4%--while 114 or 46.5% have been played as home games.

      FISHER'S IMPACT. Entering the 2004 season AFA's all-time record stands at 294-243-13(.546) in 550 games. Fisher's tenure as head coach spans 44.5% of the total number of games the Falcons have played in their history, yet has produced 53% of the academy's victories. Another mark of Fisher's success is that his teams have registered only 36% of the academy's all-time losses while having played 44.5% of the total number of games in AFA's football history. DeBerry has already won 18 more games than all other head football coaches in AFA's history combined. The Falcons need six more victories to post their 300th win.

 

       DEE-FENSE, DEE-FENSE?  The Fisher DeBerry era, now in its twenty-first season in 2004, has demonstrated that a crucial determinant in AFA's ability to win a game is the frequency with which the Falcons hold opponents to twenty-three points or less. Entering the 2004 football season, Fisher DeBerry had coached AFA in 245 games and posted an overall record of 156-88-1(.638). In 138 games the Falcons held their opponents to 23 or fewer points and posted a dazzling 118-20 (85.5%) winning mark. In the 107 games the Falcons allowed their opponents to score 24 or more points they posted a desultory 38-68-1 (.359) record.

 

 This trend, established from 1984 through 1998, has continued in recent seasons as well. From November 18, 1999  through the conclusion of the 2003 season, Air Force played forty-eight games against division 1-A opponents. In those forty-eight games Air Force compiled a 27-21(.562) record. In 31 (64.5%) of those games Air Force allowed 24 or more points to the opposition. In those 31 games when allowing 24 or more points, AFA went 12-19 (.387). In the seventeen games in which the Falcons allowed twenty-three points or less AFA posted a mark of 15-2(.882).

 

 The preponderance of evidence over twenty years is clear: when AFA limits the opposition to 23 points or less it wins. When AFA allows twenty-four points or more its chances to win decrease rapidly and the figures support this assessment. Whether you take the long view over Fisher's twenty years as the team's coach or the short view from November 1999 to the beginning of the current season the outcomes are strikingly similar: when AFA holds its opponent to twenty-three or fewer points it wins and when it allows twenty-four or more points it loses.

 

    STUMBLING BLOCKS. This year's senior class enters the 2004 season with two  dubious distinctions. Its overall MWC record is a quite modest 10-11(.476). The class has also seen three consecutive seasons end with 2-5 swoons over the course of the final seven games on the schedule.

 

 In the past three seasons AFA has lost two of three games to both San Diego State and New Mexico. In the same period of time AFA has lost three straight to CSU, bringing the Falcons' record against these three conference foes to an unacceptable 2-7 (.222).

 

 The second half of the schedule this season calls for AFA to play all three of their recent nemeses--N. Mex., SDS and CSU--at home.

 

   

 

    RUSHING AHEAD. Here is a look at the leading rushers in AFA history at the outset of the 2004 campaign.

 

         1. 3612     Dee Dowis
         2. 3379     Beau Morgan
         3. 2726     John Kershner
         4. 2324     Chance Harridge
         5. 2284     Brian Bream
         5. 2284     Pat Evans
         7. 1993     Greg Johnson
         8. 1860     Marty Louthan
         9. 1762     Jason Jones
       10. 1760     Rodney Lewis
       11. 1702     Rob Perez
       12. 1677     Bart Weiss
       13. 1633     Terry Issacson
       14. 1630     Ken Wood
       15. 1551     Shelby Ball
       16. 1534     Mike Thiessen
       17. 1478     Jake Campbell
       18. 1470     Leotis Palmer
       19. 1406     Qualario Brown
       20. 1400     Scotty McKay
       21. 1371     Mike Quinlan
       22. 1354     Spanky Gilliam
       23. 1347     Larry Thomson
       24. 1296     Nakia Addison
       25. 1242     Keith Boyea
       26. 1233     Johnny Smith
       27. 1129     Blane Morgan
       28. 1112     Anthony Butler <= 
       29. 1091     Curtis Martin
       30. 1086     Darnell Stephens <= 
       31. 1074     Bill Berry
       32. 1005     Joel Carlson
     
     

 

       Anthony Butler continues his climb up the chart of career rushing leaders at the academy. After topping the one-thousand yard plateau in the 2003 season Butler stands positioned to make a concerted charge up the ranks of the all-time leaders during his senior campaign in 2004. For his career Butler has carried the ball 210 times for 1,112 yards, 10 TDs and a 5.29 yards per carry average.

 

       The newest name to be added to the list of career rushers to have reached or surpassed the 1,000 yard mark is Darnell Stephens. Stephens' career slate shows him having carried the ball 190 times, for 1086 yards, a 5.71 yards per carry average and 6 TDs. The senior-to-be from Midwest City, Oklahoma and Butler should chase each other up the charts of career rushers at the academy during the 2004 season.

 

    The individual and collective performances of Butler and Stephens give evidence as to why the AFA ground based option attack has focused more upon the halfbacks efforts and less upon production from the fullbacks in recent years.
     
     AFA AGAINST THE POINTS. From 2001 to the start of the 2004 schedule here's a look at how the Falcons have fared against the point spread. Bear in mind that Las Vegas does not set a line for a game matching a division 1-A team against a division 1-AA team. In 2001, Air Force went 3-8 against the spread. In 2002, AFA went 9-4 against the point spread. The Falcons were 4-7 against the spread in 2003. The Falcons' 16-19 (.457) mark against the spread over the past three years might provide AFA fans with a caveat to think twice before laying the points on the Falcons.

 

       WHITEWASHED. Air Force posted its ninth shutout during Fisher DeBerry's tenure as head coach when it beat Wofford, 49-0, to open the 2003 season. Army (1991 & 1999), The Citadel (1993), San Jose State (1996) Colorado State and Army (1997), Wake Forest (1998) and Tennessee Tech (2001) are the other shutouts administered by the Falcons in the DeBerry era.

 

       TAKING THE OFFENSIVE. Chuck Petersen, the national assistant coach of the year in 2003, has been the offensive coordinator for the Falcons from the outset of the 2000 season. Since Petersen has assumed the reins to the Air Force attack the Falcons have posted a record of 29-19(.604) in forty-eight games.

 

       LOOKING BACKWARD AND FORWARD. In 2003, Wofford was 12-2 on the year. Northwestern 6-7; North Texas 9-4; Wyoming 4-8; BYU 4-8; Navy 8-5; UNLV 6-6, CSU 7-6, Utah 10-2, Army 0-13, New Mexico 8-5 and San Diego State was 6-6. The overall record of the teams Air Force played in the 2003 season was 80-72 (.526). The only division 1-A team the Falcons beat which ended the 2003 season with a winning record was North Texas.

 

     Here's a look at how teams on AFA's schedule in 2003 did in the post-season. Wofford lost to Delaware, 24-9, in the division 1-AA playoffs. North Texas lost, 27-17, to Memphis in the New Orleans Bowl. New Mexico lost, 55-14, to Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl. Northwestern lost, 28-24, to Bowling Green in the Motor City Bowl. Navy lost, 38-14, to Texas Tech in the Houston Bowl. CSU lost to Boston College, 35-21, in the San Francisco Bowl. The lone team on the Falcons' 2003 schedule to win a bowl game was Utah. The Utes beat Southern Mississippi in the Liberty Bowl by a, 17-0, score.

 

     In 2004 AFA will face a slate of teams whose composite record in 2003 was 67-70 (.489). California was 8-6, handed co-defending national champion, Southern Cal, its only defeat of the season in a triple overtime contest and defeated Virginia Tech, 52-49, in the Insight Bowl. For the fifth time in six years AFA will play host to a division 1-AA team when it welcomes the Eastern Washington Eagles of the Big Sky conference to Falcon Stadium. The Eagles posted a 6-5 record in 2003. The remainder of AFA's opponents in 2004, with their 2003 records, are: Army (0-13), BYU (4-8), CSU (7-6), Navy (8-5), New Mexico (8-5), UNLV (6-6), Utah (10-2), San Diego State (6-6) and Wyoming (4-8).