MURKY.
Take a good look at the picture of me accompanying this column. You can see
clearly that I'm sporting new headwear from Mustifa's House O'Turbans. It's
viselike grip on my skull caused bone-splitting headaches and impaired my
ability to properly assess last week's games. I mean, what other explanation
could there possibly be for my having gone 1-2 in my forecast? Even with an
abominable performance last week I'm a quite respectable 30-7 (.810) for the
season. I've stretched the new chapeau all week by using it as a bowling ball
cover. With my meditative capabilities now fully restored I'm prepared to forge
ahead with this week's intrepid forecast.
North Carolina
@
Utah.
If this was a basketball
game
it's a contest that could go down to the last possession regardless of which
team had home court advantage. Unfortunately for the Tar Heels there are still
several weeks' time before Midnight Madness--and the start of college hoops'
practices--arrives.
It's no greater struggle in futility to find the proper adjective to describe
how inept UNC's defense is, than the Tar Heels' own vexing hell in trying to
stop opposing offenses each week. North Carolina ranks 112th in division 1-A
football in overall defense yielding over 476 yards a contest. Utah enters the
game with the 12th rated offense in major college football and a juggernaut
averaging over 200 yards a game via the run and through the air.
QB Alex Smith
is
the 7th rated passer in the NCAA and has an embarrassment of riches at his
disposal in guiding coach Urban Meyer's offense. Smith has just 8 TD passes thus
far, but has been intercepted only once in 114 attempts. In the passing game
Smith is efficient rather than spectacular. Utah's two primary pass-catching
threats are WRs Paris Warren and Steve Savoy, who have combined to grab 46
passes for 6 TDs and 759 yards.
From the backfield, RBs Marty Johnson and Quinton Ganther have gained 702 yards
and scored 7 TDs in what continues to be a remarkably balanced Utah attack. The
lone drawback to the facile manner of the Utes' offense is that because it can,
and does, gain yardage so quickly opposing teams tend to have an advantage in
time of possession when playing Utah. The Utes' defense has been undaunted by
this dilemma as the team's 5-0 record and 11th rung ranking in the national
polls indicates. Utah's defenders may be in for another long day on Saturday as
UNC doesn't appear to be equipped to contain the Utes high-powered offense.
On
top
of the myriad problems UNC has had this fall, comes word in the
past twenty-four hours of the indefinite suspension of three players for
marijuana use. WR Adarius Bowman, LB Fred Sparkman and DT Isaiah Thomas will
miss this weekend's game against the Utes. An already suspect defense will be
further weakened.
A victory by Utah would give the MWC an abysmal 6-13(.315) record against
BCS
affiliated teams in the 2004 regular season. A Utah victory over UNC would make
the Utes responsible for having produced three of the league's six wins against
BCS affiliated teams in 2004. Fans of the MWC are afflicted with a curious form
of myopia most easily characterized by "if/then" thinking. The rational unfolds
as follows: if Utah is good enough to go undefeated, be ranked in the top six in
the national polls and participate in a BCS aligned bowl, then, as a conference,
the MWC is worthy of inclusion in all future BCS postseason festivities.
Such a provincial apologia is nonsensical. Utah is a terrific team, perhaps one
capable of holding its own on a competitive basis against all but a handful of
teams in college football this fall. However, the rising tide of Utah's success
does not lift all the other boats that comprise the MWC. In 2004, Utah may prove
to be an exceptionally good team from what is by and large a terrible conference
and one whose undistinguished record does not merit inclusion in BCS aligned
bowl games.
The BCS would like nothing more than for someone--anyone--to derail the runaway
train that is Utah, and which appears to be the most potent threat to the
holiday plans of the BCS. If Utah loses, it won't be to North Carolina. Utah is
my pick.
CSU/span>
@ SAN DIEGO STATE.. Once again, preseason
forecasts placed high expectations on the Aztecs. While the team played well on
the road against Michigan a second half power failure led to the team's defeat.
In two other road games against UCLA and Wyoming SDS again came up short. Home
field victories authored against Idaho State and Nevada are all Tom craft's team
has to show through the first half of the season as yet another SDS team seems
to have plunged into the tenebrous depths of underachievement.
The third weekend of October arrives to find the CSU Rams in search of their
first victory of the season against a division 1-A team. The Rams and Aztecs
each have one loss in MWC already and the loser of this weekend's game will be
dismissed from the scavenger hunt for a bowl bid. Bearing in mind each team
still must face Utah this season the outcome of this game might be superfluous
where postseason play is concerned.
SDS has been hurt by the red-shirt status of Lynell Hamilton, the 2003 MWC
Newcomer of the Year. RB Michael Franklin has taken his spot in the backfield,
but isn't the type of back capable of carrying the ball 25 to 30 times a game as
was Hamilton last year. Franklin is a splendid compliment to Hamilton's
abilities, but not a replacement for them.
QB Matt Dlugolecki is completing plenty of passes, but his predilection for
throwing untimely interceptions is reflected by the fact he's thrown more of
them than TD passes.
LBs Kirk Morrison and Matt McCoy
may
be the best tandem in the MWC. If they receive assistance from an offense which
has scored just ten points in each of the team's last two games--both road
losses--the Aztecs have the talent to wins several games in the conference. A
disastrous punting exhibition in the third quarter against Wyoming last
week--three punts totaled 25 yards--led to 10 Cowboys' points and a loss in the
Aztecs' conference opener.
The Rams haven't established a running game this year and rank 113th in the
nation in rushing. A San Diego State unit ranked 30th best in college football
won't make CSU's job any easier. QB Justin Holland leads the nation's 5th ranked
passing attack, but like Dlugolecki, has thrown inopportune interceptions.
CSU has struggled mightily
on
defense this year, witness the 200 plus rushing yards yielded to BYU, the
nation's worst rushing team. Franklin may have more success shearing the Rams
than he's had against other teams this season.
There aren't any compelling reasons to feel strongly about either team's chances
for victory in this game. CSU isn't the same capable, confident, proficient team
so frequently on display in Sonny Lubick's tenure in Fort Collins. The Rams are
woeful on defense, haven't addressed their shortcomings in the running game and
fall victim too frequently to interceptions. It's bleak outlook.
SDS is caught betwixt and between playing superbly against solid teams (e.g.
Michigan) and slovenly against teams with whom it should be competitive (e.g.
Wyoming). The Aztecs have a history of losing interest and focus when having
been eliminated from the race for a league title and/or bowl berth. While it's
possible the team may yet streak to a few league victories time is growing
short. Only because CSU has been wretched on defense thus far am I making San
Diego State my pick in this game.
NEW
MEXICO
@
UNLV. Ahhh, the remarkable power of the inevitable! Rebels'
coach John Robinson waited until his team had suffered through the agony of a
four game losing skid to begin the season before announcing he'd head into the
coaching sunset after the season concluded. Since Robo's proclamation UNLV has
won two straight games, never mind that one came against an impotent Nevada Wolf
Pack, while the other was an impressive upset of BYU in Provo.
LB Adam Seward continues to increase his MWC all-time leading tackle total as
the linchpin of the UNLV defense. UNLV's problems don't stem from poor play by
its defenders so much as inconsistent play from its offense. The oft-injured
Kurt Nantkes and Shane Steichen have each completed less than 50% of their pass
attempts and thrown more interceptions than TD passes. It's hard for any offense
to sustain a drive under those conditions.
Dominique Dorsey has carried the load in the running game, but teams have
limited his effectiveness because they can key on him secure in the knowledge
the rebels' passing game is an empty threat.
WR Earvin Johnson
is the target of habitual double coverage as UNLV has no competent second
receiver to whom the team's inaccurate QBs can throw.
New Mexico faces shortcomings on offense as well. TB DonTrell Moore, who
electrified college football in 2003, has been a faint copy of the runner he was
a season ago. A knee ligament injury, suffered while returning a punt in the New Mexico State game last month, caused him to miss the Utah game the following
week. When the Lobos played Air Force last week Moore gained over 100 yards, but
didn't have a single long run in the game and was neither fully recovered from
his injury nor the force he was last year when the Lobos were legitimate
contenders in the MWC race.
UNM's passing attack is even less effective than that of the Rebels. Kole
McKamey may miss his second consecutive game due to a concussion suffered
earlier this year. His replacement, Tali Ena, has connected on 30% of his pass
attempts. This will be
one
of the few games in division 1-A football this year to match teams that each
have completed less than 50% of their pass attempts.
LB Fola Fashola will anchor a New Mexico defense that has been forced to spend
far too much time on the field this year. Unless the Lobos can make some
improvement in their passing game the Rebels should be able to find enough
balance on offense to post a third straight win before heading to Salt Lake next
week. My pick is UNLV.
Wyoming
@ BYU.
Here is the most intriguing game in the MWC this week. The Cougars feature the
worst rushing attack in division 1-A football and lost at home last week to
UNLV. Bear in mind, this is the same BYU squad which began its season by
defeating what is a strong Notre Dame team and followed that performance by
nearly halting the nation's longest active winning streak when it came so close
to toppling the Boise State Broncos in Idaho.
Coach Gary Crowton is left to unravel the mystery of which team will appear this
week: the one good enough to whip Notre Dame or the one so lax it lost to UNLV.
RBs Fahu Tahi and Curtis Brown give the Cougars sporadic production in the
running game. The battling Becks--John and Jason--lead the way at QB for the
Cougars. While each has helped BYU to gain 288 yards a game through the air
they've combined to through 8 interceptions and only 4 TD passes. BYU is yet
another example of MWC team whose offense is unbalanced and prone to
short-circuiting.
With nearly no acknowledgment from the state's population, Joe Glenn's Wyoming
Cowboys have won seven of their past 12 games, including a, 13-10, victory in
Laramie against BYU last year. The 'Pokes find themselves in the uncustomary
position of riding the momentum associated with their current three game winning
streak. Fans can take issue with the fact that the Cowboys have beaten up
nondescript teams such as Appalachian State and Louisiana-Monroe, but these are
the same partisans who promised in the dark days of the late 1990s and earlier
this decade to buy tickets once the local team beat anybody. They must be
suffering from short term memory loss because Glenn has turned this program
around in short order and there has been no concomitant increase in attendance
in War Memorial Stadium.
Corey Bramlet has replaced older brother Casey as the team's QB and led the
offense in capable, though not yet spectacular, fashion. The 'Pokes running
attack isn't yet potent enough to keep defenses off-balance thereby making it
easier for Bramlet to become a more proficient passer.
Last week's conference opening win against SDS--a team picked to finish second
in the league in preseason polls--may be all that Glenn's team needed to realize
how close it is to being a competitive force on a weekly basis in the MWC.
The meeting between the Cougars and Cowboys is a game in which Wyoming's having
played bottom feeders earlier in the year comes home to roost. Annually, BYU
plays as intrepid a non-conference schedule as any team in the country. Beating
Appalachian State is one thing, beating Notre Dame is quite another. Wyo's win
over SDS last week was its first in the conference this year and won't be the
only one the team authors. Joe Glenn and his crew will have to wait for another
day to claim their next MWC win. My pick is BYU.
SNOOZE
OF THE WEEK.
The
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are a team with little bark and even less bite. The SMU
Mustangs are equines that can't run. How fitting then, that the two should be
paired in the dog and pony show comprising this week's SOW classic.
Before inexplicably finding a way to topple Fresno State, the Bulldogs'
toothless defense surrendered 48 points to Miami (Fla.), 42 to Tennessee and 52
to Auburn.
Don't run out and bet the
farm
on SMU just yet. The Mustangs have installed a revolving door on their goal line
leading directly to the end zone. SMU's defenders have been generous to a fault
in surrendering 44 points to TCU, 59 to Oklahoma State, 38 to Boise State and 44
to Rice.
LT
ranks
98th in scoring defense while SMU stands at 108th. The teams' offensive
coordinators must be salivating at the thought of getting to shred such paper
tigers as these.
If solid defensive play, which leads to opportunities to assist a team's
offense, is what keeps you riveted to the edge of your seat while watching
college football, you'll be in the wrong place if you spend more than thirty
seconds watching this exhibition.
Warning: after further review, prolonged tele-viewing of this game could induce
coma-like symptoms for fans of defensive football. Have a pillow and blanket
handy if you settle down to watch this travesty.
