THE HALLOWEEN EFFECT.
From
the period beginning on Halloween Night 2003 through the most recently played
game on the schedule the Air Force Falcons have played 25 games. The team's
record in those games is 12-13(.480). Here's one factor for the team's poor
showing in that stretch of games.
On Halloween
Night in 2003 AFA failed to score a point in the third quarter while playing at
home against CSU. That occasion marks the start of a disturbing trend that has
seen the Falcons be alarmingly unproductive in the third period of games. In the
twenty-five games the team has played since then the falcons have failed to
score a point in fourteen different games in the third quarter. AFA's record in
those fourteen games is a disastrous 3-11(.214). In the past ten games in which
Air Force has failed to score a point during the third quarter the team has lost
nine games. That's a trend requiring Fisher DeBerry's immediate attention.
Here's a chart
of the games in which AFA has failed to score in the third quarter since
Halloween Night 2002 to the present.
|
Date |
Site/Opponent |
Final score |
|
10/31/02 |
AFA--CSU |
CSU 31-12 |
|
12/31/02 |
SF Bowl--V. Tech |
V. Tech 20-13 |
|
9/6/03 |
@ Northwestern |
AFA
23-21 |
|
9/20/03 |
AFA--Wyo |
AFA
35-29 |
|
10/04/03 |
@Navy |
Navy
28-25 |
|
10/16/03 |
@CSU |
CSU
30-20 |
|
11/1/03 |
AFA--Utah |
Utah
45-43 (3OT) |
|
11/15/03 |
@N. Mex. |
N.
Mex. 24-12 |
|
11/22/03 |
@SDS |
SDS
24-3 |
|
9/4/04 |
AFA--Cal |
Cal
56-14 |
|
9/30/04 |
AFA--Navy |
Navy
24-21 |
|
10/9/04 |
AFA--N. Mex. |
AFA 28-23 |
|
10/23/04 |
AFA--BYU |
BYU
41-24 |
|
10/30/04 |
@Wyoming |
Wyo
43-26 |
STUMBLING BLOCKS.
This year's senior class has two dubious distinctions. Its overall MWC record is
a quite modest 12-14(.461) through and
including the Wyoming game. The class has also seen three consecutive
seasons end with 2-5 swoons over the course of the final seven games on the
schedule.
In the past
three seasons AFA has lost two of three games to both San Diego State and New Mexico. In the same period of time AFA has lost three straight games to CSU,
bringing the Falcons' record against these three conference foes to an
unacceptable 2-7 (.222).
The second half of the schedule this season
calls for AFA to play all three of their recent nemeses--N. Mexico, SDS and
CSU--at home. The team’s most recent win, posted against the Lobos, raises the
record of the class of 2005 to 3-7 versus New Mexico, SDS and CSU.
AFA AGAINST THE
POINTS. From 2001 through this
season's Wyoming game here's a look at how the Falcons have fared against the
point spread. Bear in mind that Las Vegas does not set a line for
a game matching a division 1-A team against a division 1-AA team. In 2001, Air
Force went 3-8 against the spread. In 2002, AFA went 9-4 against the point
spread. The Falcons were 4-7 against the spread in 2003. AFA is 3-4 against the
spread in 2004. The Falcons’ 19-23 (.452) mark against the spread over the past
forty-two games might provide AFA fans with a caveat to think twice before
laying the points on the Falcons.
TAKING THE OFFENSIVE.
Chuck Petersen, the national assistant coach of the year in 2003, has been the
offensive coordinator for the Falcons from the outset of the 2000 season. Since
Petersen has assumed the reins to the Air Force attack the Falcons have posted a
record of 32-24(.571) in fifty-six games.
SCHEDULING SNAFU.
Current NCAA guidelines allow division 1-A teams
to schedule 12 regular season games in a year depending on the number of
weekends which fall between Labor Day and the first week of December. The next
four years in which AFA would be eligible to play 12 games are: 2008, 2013, 2014
and 2019.
Texas Christian University
will become a full fledged member of the MWC beginning with the 2005 football
season. This means that the conference will be comprised of nine teams and each
school in the league will play every other member annually. That gives AFA eight
games a year. Throw in the yearly CIC battles against Army and Navy and the
Falcons have ten games seemingly in place stretching into the far reaches of
their football future.
At present AFA is
under contract for the 2006 season to play at Northwestern and at home against
Notre Dame. However, 2006 is a year in which teams are eligible to play only
eleven regular season games.
The scenario is
nearly the same for the 2007 season with AFA hosting Northwestern and traveling
to South Bend to face the Fighting Irish. It’s a season in which current NCAA
guidelines allow for only eleven regular season games.
The same
situation arises in 2009 when AFA is scheduled to host Texas
A & M and meet North Texas in Denton. It’s a year in which only 11 games are
permitted.
The dilemma for
the Falcons is a tough one. The AFA has played Notre Dame and Northwestern with
some frequency during Fisher DeBerry’s tenure. A home game against the Fighting
Irish is a cash cow for the Falcons and putting future games against the Irish
in jeopardy would be courting severe financial impact. On the other side of the
coin, Northwestern represents a school of similar academic integrity to that of
the AFA as well as being a member of the BCS. Under current NCAA
guidelines, one of the games in the 2006, 2007 and 2009 seasons will need to be
dropped by AFA.
There are at
least two ways in which to regard this potential scheduling gridlock. For the
season ticket buying public, it means AFA’s schedule will have a highly
repetitive nature since there will only be one slot available for a non-MWC,
non-military academy rival each year. On the other hand, the current NCAA
restriction allowing just eleven games in most seasons may finally end AFA’s
longstanding practice of scheduling games against division 1-AA opponents which
have produced no drama and farcical mismatches while forcing the public to pay
premium prices for an inferior product.
Let me also
note that there is legislation which has been introduced by an NCAA committee
this fall to adopt an exemption for a 12th game among division 1-A
teams.