Key Matchups: Army vs. Air Force

Background

The ninth game of the year matches the Army Black Knights (Sagarin 143, 3-5) and rival Mountain West Conference Air Force Falcons (Sagarin 47, 5-4). Air Force leads the all time series 29-13-1. The Falcons have dominated the past decade winning the past 3 meetings and 11 of the past 12.

Last Week (Two Weeks Ago)

Army fumbled yet another opportunity to play a competitive game. Army rushed for 197 yards on the 11th ranked rushing defense and actually was able to play with Rutgers, but a muffed catch/blocked punt for a touchdown and three fumbles, really killed their chances to stay in the game.

Rutgers passed for 197 yards and were pretty much able to keep the cadet blitz at bay. Joe Martinek carried the ball 25 times for 139 yards and two touchdowns.

Trent Steelman had a tough day throwing as he was 2/6 for 16 yards. He and Ali Villanueva looked pathetic in their three attempts to connect with each other.

In Fort Collins, Air Force passed for 111 yards and ran for 271 in an easy win over Colorado State. Sophomore quarterback, Tim Jefferson, was 7/12 with two touchdown passes. The Air Force defense was once again outstanding, limiting the Rams to 267 total yards.

What we Learned

We learned what we pretty much already knew. Army must play perfect football in order to compete with the big boys. 3 turnovers and a blocked punt is far from perfect. Unfortunately, that has become a rather typical performance for them as this season has unfolded, no matter what quality of competition they have faced.

We learned that the Black Knights could stack up and play with a Big East Team. They would have had a chance to make a game of it if not for the fumbles, which is kind of like saying Reggie Jackson would have been a .300 hitter if not for all the strikeouts!

Out West, we learned that Air Force has two real quarterbacks and that Tim Jefferson will be a force to be reckoned with for the next few years. Unlike the Army “attack”, Air Force has a real passing threat when Jefferson takes the snaps. We also learned that their defense is good and very well coached. They take calculated chances and execute.

Who is favored?

Air Force is favored by 17 points

What to look for?

I expect this to be a very typical Air Force showing. They will come into the game very confident, execute very well and wait for Army to self-destruct. It is a formula that has worked 11 of the past 12 meetings.

Look for Air Force to put nine in the box and make Army throw. Look for one or two trick plays from Air Force.

Army’s defense will keep them in the game if the offense does not give it away first. Air Force just has a way of bringing out the worst in Army and I am not too sure if this year will not be the same. Army has a huge size advantage on the outside with Villanueva, but I don’t think that he will suddenly start getting open and catching passes Saturday.

Air Force is better offensively, defensively and on special teams. I expect Air Force to do nothing out of the ordinary and coast to an easy victory. Army will stay in the game if they can win the turnover battle.

If Army gets out to a lead, this game could be a lot of fun. Much more likely however, Army will get their heads handed to them.

Final Score – Air Force 24 - Army 10 (predictions this year 2-6)

Let’s Root for the back door cover!

The game will be presented on CBS Sports Television @ 3:30 PM EST.